Report: July Heat Waves 'Virtually Impossible' Without Climate Change

Facts

• In a "rapid attribution analysis," the World Weather Attribution Initiative found that the heat wave scorching the US, southern Europe, and China would have been "virtually impossible" without the contributions of human-caused climate change.¹
• The Initiative, admits that while the heat waves would still occur, searing temperatures would have been much cooler without the multiplying factors that come with climate change. The heatwaves recorded reportedly spanned between 1°-2.5°C (1.8°-4.5°F) hotter because of the warming climate.²
• Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and one of the scientists that makes up the consortium of Initiative said: "This is not a surprise...In the past, these events would have been extremely rare."³
• During July's heatwave, more than 2K temperature records were broken in the US alone. On Monday, Palermo, Sicily destroyed its 232-year-old high temperature record by reaching 117°F (47°C).⁴
• Without climate change, the likelihood of such extreme heat events would be approximately one in every 250 years.⁵
• While the Initiative did not factor the El Niño weather pattern into their data, they acknowledged that climate models account for the pattern and the impacts have minimal comparison to the impacts of global warming.⁶

Sources: ¹CNN, ²The Hill, ³NBC, ⁴NPR Online News, ⁵ABC News, and ⁶Washington Post.

Narratives

• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by PBS NewsHour. As global warming progresses, heat waves will continue to increase in frequency and severity. Climate change aside, a dangerous El Niño pattern is setting up anyway. Communities around the world that typically dump money into preparedness for other hazards will now need to focus on extreme heat. Heat-related illness is now the leading killer among all weather hazards in the US. Authorities must step up and do more to protect the vulnerable.
• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by C2Es. The Biden Administration has been a global leader in making great strides toward improving extreme heat response. Biden has shined a spotlight on the threat and led the development of the first-ever heat-specific safety standard for workers. While there's still work to be done administration has moved the needle on reducing emissions and mitigating the current levels of risk, and setting a high bar for the global community.
• Narrative C, as provided by Guardian. As climate scientists watch the extreme heat ravage the northern hemisphere, the only regret is that report after report still has not spurred significant action. Disappointment hangs over the scientists that they may have failed to communicate the threat and the risks of no action more clearly. The World Weather Attribution Initiative is known for being a fair umpire of whether extreme events are attributed to climate change — hopefully, it's not too late for better science communication.

Predictions