Exit Poll Shows Three-Way Tie in Irish General Election

Facts

• An Ipsos/B&A exit poll for RTÉ, The Irish Times, TG4, and Trinity College Dublin released just as polls closed in Ireland on Friday shows coalition partners Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil and opposition Sinn Féin tied within the margin of error.^[1][2]
• Sinn Féin comes first with 21.1% of the vote, closely followed by Taoiseach Simon Harris' Fine Gael at 21% and Michéal Martin's Fianna Fáil at 19.5%. Independents comprise the fourth largest group with 12.7% of the share.^[3][4]
• Four years ago, the exit poll accurately predicted a three-way neck-and-neck race between the three major Irish parties at around 22% of the vote — though Sinn Féin ended up slightly above the margin of error then.^[5][2]
• If the latest poll is correct, Sinn Féin would once again win the popular vote but likely fail to form the next government. Rivals-turned-allies Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have pledged not to enter a coalition with Sinn Féin.^[6][7][8]
• Vote counting began on Saturday morning, with official results expected by early to mid-afternoon. However, due to Ireland's complex proportional representation system, it could take days to determine all 174 members of the Dáil Éireann.^[5][8][9]
• This snap general election was called earlier this month when Sinn Féin faced several controversies. Since then, however, the ruling Fine Gael also came under fire after Harris was caught on video apparently being rude and dismissive to a care worker.^[10]

Sources: ^[1]The Irish Times, ^[2]BBC News, ^[3]The Journal, ^[4]The Guardian, ^[5]RTÉ, ^[6]Irish Independent, ^[7]Reuters, ^[8]The Telegraph, ^[9]POLITICO and ^[10]DW.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by Spectator (UK). This exit poll stresses what most Irish citizens were already expecting. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil will remain in power, and nothing will change except for the third party in the coalition. That's not to say that voters are happy with mainstream politicians, especially as independent candidates have polled quite well.
• Narrative B, as provided by Irish Examiner. Forming a new government will be no easy task, with official results and later seats potentially changing the power balance between the three main parties. If the exit poll is accurate, then an unstable coalition of four or more parties may be needed as Social Democrats — the largest among the rest — is unlikely to enter government with Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.

Predictions