China Stops Releasing Youth Employment Data

Facts

• After youth unemployment rates hit a record 21.3% in June, China's National Bureau of Statistics has announced that it will halt releasing those numbers to 'further improve and optimise labour [sic] force survey statistics.'¹
• This is the latest month in a series of consecutive record highs, with the youth unemployment rate from April to June rising to 20.4%, 20.8%, and 21.3% in each respective month. It also comes as a record 11.6M college graduates seek employment this year.²
• The increase in youth unemployment — which represents the 16-24-year-old age bracket — is another indicator of an overall economic slowdown, with official data released last week showing consumer prices falling 0.3% over the past year.³
• Other signs of slowing include retail sales growth dropping from 3.1% in June to 2.5% last month, industrial production up 3.7% in July after rising 4.4% the month prior, and fixed-asset investment jumping 3.4% in July, compared to the 3.8% growth recorded in June.²
• Critics argue that China was already fabricating data, including its use of the 16-24 age range rather than the World Bank's 15-24 range, as well as reports that it's encouraging college graduates to lie about their employment status. Others have criticized its definition of employed as working one hour per week.⁴
• The overall unemployment rate rose from 5.2% in June to 5.3% in July, with the central bank Tuesday cutting its one-year loan rates to financial firms from 2.65% to 2.5%. All of this suggests China, whose economy only grew by 0.8% between Q1 and Q2 this year, may fall far short of its 5% growth goal.¹

Sources: ¹Guardian, ²CNN, ³Washington Post and ⁴Time.

Narratives

• Anti-China narrative, as provided by Business Insider. The PRC's expected post-COVID economic rebound is not happening, and Beijing should be worried. Due to declining exports and imports, shrinking property values, and the remaining demographic effects of the one-child policy, China is looking at a depressing economy over the next decade.
• Pro-China narrative, as provided by Global times. While youth unemployment is dealing with some issues, the overall unemployment rate in China is stable. Furthermore, most of the 11M college students set to graduate in 2023 already have jobs lined up, which means the youth demographic is still strong and getting stronger. The reason Beijing has paused the release of certain economic data is to give the PRC time to represent a more realistic — and factually optimistic — outlook for the country.

Predictions